tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11368985992463948532024-02-20T13:05:00.244-08:00Climate CassandraDavid Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.comBlogger88125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-78569181685699019072023-04-06T12:06:00.000-07:002023-04-06T12:06:15.583-07:00Word, words, words. I'm so sick of words<p>Words matter and I like Liam Kavanagh's <a href="https://moderateflank.org/climate-and-tech-how-we-are-sending-the-wrong-message/liam-kavanagh/#comment-21" target="_blank">discussion of climate words</a>. </p><p>Kavanagh argues that if we say “1.5 is alive” many readers will think we mean “we’ve got a practical chance of meeting 1.5 °C with the political processes we have in place”. And that, of course, is nonsense.</p><p>The IPCC Synthesis report says explicitly that we need (para C.1)<br /></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"> “increased international cooperation
including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for
vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and
coordinated policies".<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Indeed we do but we shan't get it without profound political change.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">So we should stop saying the comfortable positive things. If we must say that 1.5 is alive we MUST add that it can only stay alive if we move immediately to </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">increased international cooperation on priorities and funding, and everything else. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">As XR says - Tell the truth.<br /></span></p>David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-60076884383171154642023-04-03T04:29:00.004-07:002023-04-03T04:29:18.512-07:00Excessive optimism by the IPCC<p><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;"></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">The IPCC
has been praised for the stark realism of its recent Synthesis Report<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a>.
And it’s true that the tone is bleaker and the language more forceful than in previous
reports.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">But overall
I believe it’s far too optimistic. I don’t doubt the science. We do need “</span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">deep
global GHG emissions reductions this decade” (paras A.4.3 and B.5.1) in order
to have even a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C.</span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">It’s
the recommendations! They would be right for a world in which world leaders
were good people. People who followed the evidence to find then implement solutions
to the climate crisis.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">That’s
not the world we live in.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">The
climate emergency is a global crisis, well beyond the control of any one state.
The IPCC rightly describes </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">international cooperation as a “critical
enabler” (para C.7.6, also para C.1). But you might as well ask Boris Johnson
to unite with the EU or Vladimir Putin to respect human rights. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Over and over again progress at the
UNFCCC COPs has been blocked by leaders who care more for short-term national advantage
and the profits of oil companies than long-term global survival. In the UK, USA,
Russia, China, Hungary, Italy, India – it would be tedious to go on – the last
decade has the rise of nationalists who barely even claim to respect international
law and democratic values. The willingness of countries to collaborate on
anything except trade is markedly lower than it was when the UNFCCC process started.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">And let’s look at money. We need, the
IPCC says, “<span style="color: #1e1e1e;">improved access to finance for
low-emissions</span><span style="color: black;"> </span><span style="color: #1e1e1e;">infrastructure
and technologies, especially in developing countries (C.2.5)”. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="color: #1e1e1e; font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the real world the
major nations have so far failed consistently to provide climate finance at the
long-promised $100B per year. And they have yet to agree numbers or a mechanism
to pay for the loss and damage they have caused. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="color: #1e1e1e; font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There is just no chance
that they will suddenly see the error of their ways and do what’s necessary.</span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">So I just ask
this. Shouldn’t the IPCC <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>be writing for
the world we actually live in?</span></p>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"><br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<p class="MsoFootnoteText"><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">IPCC AR6
Synthesis Report (2023)</span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p></p>David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-8039655914258306652022-11-30T07:33:00.006-08:002022-11-30T07:33:54.036-08:001.5C still possible says IEA - on which planet?<p>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/30/giving-up-on-15c-climate-target-would-be-gift-to-carbon-boosters-says-iea-head?link_id=11&can_id=4b2edde07054e265f411cfa13c2a22e3&source=email-green-party-morning-briefing-tuesday-29-november&email_referrer=email_1753456&email_subject=green-party-morning-briefing-wednesday-30-november">says that 1.5C is still possible. </a></p><p>Really?</p><p>To support this the IEA says that<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/27/carbon-emissions-to-peak-in-2025-in-historic-turning-point-says-iea" target="_blank"> investment in clean energy is increasing fast</a>, driven by Russian aggression against Ukraine. That's doubtless true but largely beside the point. To keep within 1.5C we don't need <b>more </b>clean energy - we need <b>less </b>dirty energy. Because its dirty energy that drives climate change. The current position is that both are growing in order to meet increasing total demand.<br /></p><p>To reduce dirty energy we need to turn off all fossil fuel-burning electricity generators, starting with coal. We need to decarbonise transport and industry. You know the rest I'm sure. </p><p>The IEA says that fossil fuel use might peak this decade. The latest IPCC <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/aug/09/humans-have-caused-unprecedented-and-irreversible-change-to-climate-scientists-warn">report </a>says that emissions have to reduce 45% by the end of the decade. That sounds very different from 'peaking' to me.</p><p>And the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/26/current-emissions-pledges-will-lead-to-catastrophic-climate-breakdown-says-un">UN agrees</a>. It forecasts a 2.6C increase if countries meet their pledges - itself wildly unlikely. I'm sure Fatih Birol lives on a nice planet. I wish it were mine.<br /></p><p><br /></p>David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-1363888289007505102022-11-08T00:19:00.004-08:002022-11-08T00:21:52.639-08:00Social justice and the climate crisis<p><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Some climate activists and Green politicians say that there is no conflict, even alignment, between climate
change mitigation and social justice.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">That sounds
good. And if they mean that we Greens should advocate policies that promote social
justice and climate </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">change mitigation </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">then I agree. We should. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">But some make the stronger claim that </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">social
justice and climate </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">change mitigation</span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> cannot be different.
That, unhappily, is wrong. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Because they are standing at the wrong end of the telescope. They are looking at policies we may
have for the UK. That's a legitimate focus. Much of my own policy work has that
focus. But that's not how we'll fix the global heating and the biodiversity
crises because, well, they are global.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">An effective
solution to a global problem is necessarily a global one. In practice it has to
be a long-term, think at least 20 year, programme. And it will cost tens of
trillions of dollars. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">And it will
need global governance. What form will this take?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">How about a
multinational, consensus-seeking process? Sounds good. Sounds realistic. But that's what we have and it's
failed. And the very factors that have created this failure – short-termism,
economic fetishism, nationalism, billionaire power – make effective reform impossible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">How about
'muscular leadership' by a single nation? The only nation with the clout and
which might develop the insight is the US. (Please don't laugh.) Plainly the US
is not ready to play this role. It may never be ready and by the time it becomes ready it will no longer have the clout. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">What's left?
Only, I suggest, joint leadership by the US and China. And by leadership I mean
a mixture of sticks and carrots with the willingness to <u>impose</u> solutions
when persuasion fails.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Neither
country is currently ready to play this role and, in my judgement, neither will
be ready for five, maybe ten, years. By which time we will stand on the edge of
a climate precipice from which only the most vigorous action can save us. That action may have to include domestic food and energy rationing and solar radiation management.<br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">That might
be enough to save us from global catastrophe. And it might not.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">But what
is clear to me is that there will be no spare time, money or attention to
achieve other goals. Goals such as social justice, respect for human rights and the maintenance of democracy. Much of
that will have to take second place and the best we can hope for is that this
neglect or even backtracking is purely temporary. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">I do not
recommend this. I do not like this. It runs counter to my values in almost every way.<br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">But I do not see an alternative that is at
once effective and credible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">I wish I
did.</span></p>
<p></p>David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-7958686132100243142022-11-08T00:01:00.000-08:002022-11-08T00:02:03.175-08:00Cassandra returns<p>For the last 4 years I've been heavily involved with developing the <a href="https://policy.greenparty.org.uk/home/long-term-goals/cc.html" target="_blank">Green Party's policy on the Climate Emergency</a>. I will have more to say about that in the future but this blog is my personal views. So here's the first.</p><p>1.5 is not alive. It's dead. Even the most optimistic IPCC '1.5 compliant' scenarios go above 1.5 within 50 years though get below it by 2100 - by assuming lots of negative emissions. And those scenarios are purely theoretical. They don't even get lip service from the big emitters.<br /></p><p>The probable result of every nation meeting its NDC commitments would be much worse, more like 3 degrees than 1.5. And how likely is it that every nation will meet its NDC commitments ? </p><p>Very unlikely. Emissions have risen almost every year for half a century. They are not reducing and there is little sense in forecasting peak emissions until we see some, even very slight, reductions. To put it another way, the UNFCCC process, the COPs, has failed.</p><p>So are we on track for 3 degrees? </p><p>I don't think so. it's likely that we will exceed 2 degrees this century and that this will create massive positive feedback effects, such as the release of vast amounts of methane from under the arctic tundra. The results of that will be an increase of more, perhaps much more, than 3 degrees. </p><p>This isn't quite inevitable. There are still ways back. But they get harder, technically and politically, with each passing month.<br /></p>David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-85414806906298871052019-11-26T23:35:00.001-08:002019-11-26T23:35:19.883-08:00A flight to folly<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;"></span></b><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">We face
a climate emergency. Parliament has said so. This view is backed by the
overwhelming majority of climate scientists, organised by the IPCC, by the
Committee on Climate Change and by innumerable economists. And it’s been
confirmed this month by floods in Yorkshire and wildfires in Australia and
California.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;"> </span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">To end
this global emergency every country must reduce its carbon emissions – which
come mainly from burning fossil fuels. As a matter of simple justice that obligation
must fall most heavily on the countries that have made the greatest historical
contribution to climate change and which are still most profligate in their use
of them. That means us. Specifically it means local and national government.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">How does Luton Council propose to
meet this obligation? It proposes to make matters worse. The </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Luton Airport Expansion Project '</span>SIFT 2' report
(p60) says:</span></div>
<div class="Default" style="margin-left: 21.3pt;">
<span style="font-size: 9.0pt;">“… by
far the most significant GHG emissions impact will be from aircraft cruise
emissions i.e. emissions from aircraft over 3,000ft. As a result every option
is judged to have a <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Large
Adverse impact</span>“</span></div>
<div class="Default">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">In 2018
16.5 million passengers used Luton Airport. Carbon emissions were estimated as
2.2MtonsCO2e, that’s about half of one percent of all UK domestic emissions. To
allow for the increased radiative forcing due to high-altitude emissions we
should double that number. So one percent – just from one airport. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">LLAL now
proposes to increase the capacity of the airport to at least 36 mppa (“in the
region of 240,000 aircraft movements per year”). That’s a 118% increase. The
carbon emissions are then expected to be 3.9 MtonsCO2e – again we need to
double that. If that occurs in 2039 and if the UK meets its climate change
obligations that will comprise c5% of UK domestic emissions – still from just
one airport.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">It’s
morally outrageous. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">It’s also economic nonsense. Luton
Council and Airport are assuming that flying will continue to grow for many years
into the future. But this ignores:</span></div>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">The
increasing effects of climate change.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">The
growing realisation, by politicians and the public, that the climate emergency
is a major threat. When Nigel Farrage AND Jeremy Clarkson both express climate concern
in a single week we can see that something has changed</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;">More
specifically the acknowledgement by the Committee on Climate Change that aviation
growth has to be restrained. </span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype", serif;">A
simple extrapolation suggests that our government will, however reluctantly,
take steps to restrain that growth. It may not be next year or even by 2024 but
it will come. And where will the Airport's business case be then?</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-9396364510154900622018-11-20T12:07:00.002-08:002018-11-21T09:06:40.839-08:00Climate change goes construction mainstream<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
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<span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Last week we were asked to look at </span><span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">'</span><span style="color: #500050; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://stanmore.co.uk/eco-home-guide/&source=gmail&ust=1542699032640000&usg=AFQjCNGXm1_AadmWecBebh0Iurhwuy3U8Q" href="https://stanmore.co.uk/eco-home-guide/" target="_blank">How
to Make Your Home More Environmentally Friendly</a>'</span> <span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-themecolor: text1;">on the <a href="https://stanmore.co.uk/">Stanmore
Contractors</a> website. We were promised: </span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">“plenty of valuable information such as: </span></i></span></div>
<ul><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span>
<li><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">How increasing populations,
strained natural resources, carbon emissions, and deforestation are all
contributing towards global warming.</span></i></span></li>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">
</span>
</span>
<li><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The many health and economical
benefits of reducing our carbon footprint, and having an energy efficient home.</span></i></span></li>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">
</span>
</span>
<li><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Tips and advice on how to assess
energy efficiency</span></i></span></li>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">
</span>
</span>
<li><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Making the most of government
schemes and incentives”</span></i></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">Frankly I was expecting puffery and special
pleading. I was pleasantly surprised. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">The site gives a simple and accurate account of climate
change. It mentions sea level rise, Arctic ice, droughts and heatwaves and
notes that “</span>hundreds of coastal towns, cities and islands around the
world [are] at risk of being underwater within the next century.”<span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;"> And it’s uncompromising about human responsibility
for this, referring to both fossil fuels and population increases. That last
point is better than some environmentalists I could mention!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">So what are we to do? There are lots of
suggestions, all sensible though some rather minor, and home insulation, part opf Stanmore’s
business, is not given excessive space. It does mention the need to eat less meat
but not the need to fly much less.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">Let me repeat – I’m glad to see an ordinary
business addressing climate change.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">But there’s a problem – really three problems.
First the site does not say that climate change is a crisis that threatens many
lives. The death toll from the Paradise fire is still rising as I write and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/fires-in-california-camp-woolsey-paradise-wildfire-evacuations-death-toll-map-2018-11-18-latest/">993
people are missing</a>. That’s in a rich country but most of the death and
damage will be in poor countries with much worse services.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">Second it does not say that we are on track for catastrophe:</span></div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The world is on course for 3-4 degrees of warming.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The UK’s policies are too weak to deliver the fifth
carbon budget. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">No (or almost no) country has policies consistent
with keeping within 1.5 degrees – the Paris target.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Third the
advice implies, by omission, that we can address climate change by relatively
minor lifestyle changes and some green shopping. And that’s nonsense. Of course
it doesn’t say that and the author probably knows better but there it is. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Avoiding a
climate breakdown requires immediate, vigorous action by every government. It
requires major investments by businesses in every sector. And it requires all
of us to accept change we really won’t like.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Perhaps I'm asking
too much. Stanmore is a business, not a political party or a Green lobby. And the
advice from environmental NGOs often falls into the same trap.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Yet it adds
to the sense that avoiding catastrophic climate change will be easy. It won’t.</span></div>
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-32485973444525472092018-11-13T10:30:00.000-08:002018-11-13T10:30:19.092-08:00Unplugging the space Internet<div>
Mark Handley of University College London has revealed Elon Musk's Starlink to be a leading
contended for the title 'world's worst technology project' (New Scientist, 10/11/18 p 5). The project will consume a
lot of skilled effort. And it will add to climate change from the
manufacture and launching of 900 comsats per year - a vast number.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And for what? </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Starlink
will allow some banks to gain a milisecond level advantage in that form
of automated high-stakes gambling called high-frequency trading (HFT).
HFT is a singularly useless activity that supports no businesses and
feeds no children. And though it does make some bankers richer few of us
are likely to see that as an advantage.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are better uses for the money and effort that Starlink will consume. Musk should pull the plug now.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-62289384695446706472018-10-25T01:36:00.004-07:002018-10-25T01:36:39.910-07:00Caught in a NET?<div dir="ltr">
As usual Greenpeace is being sniffy about NETs. <a href="https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/08/ipcc-climate-change-carbon-capture/">https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/08/ipcc-climate-change-carbon-capture/ </a></div>
<div dir="ltr">
<br /></div>
<div>
Of
course in a sense they are right. NETs are unproven at scale and very
uncertain as to cost. It would be better to cut emissions hard now
than to continue emitting CO2 that will be removed from the air later. Prevention is better than cure and so on.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In
a sense. But it's almost certain that we <b>won't </b>
cut emissions hard enough so we <b>will </b>have to capture CO2 from the air. You have only to look at the pathways in the recent IPCC report on staying below 1.5 degrees to see that they represent, and are explicitly stated to require, an almost unprecedented economic transformation. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We have been making this argument for 20 years. We have stressed the costs of inaction, the human benefits of mitigation, the moral case to reverse the harm we have done. And emissions have risen. Actions have been inadequate at best. Need I mention Putin, bin Salman and Trump? Perhaps not.</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
We are imposing large economic costs, the destruction of much of the natural world and perhaps a high death rate on future generations - now probably in our grandchildren's lives - to avoid cost and inconvenience to ourselves. This is a serious moral failure on the part of almost all governments, and indirectly of us. But that is now the baseline. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We cannot now avoid presenting
future generations with the bill for NETs. The best we can do NOW is to
invest in the technologies needed, starting with CCS and a selection of
NETs. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So where are we with NETs? Greenpeace cites an <a href="http://www.academies.fi/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/EASAC-Report-on-NETs-Feb2018.pdf">authoritative report on NETs</a> which says that NETs "offer
only limited realistic potential to remove carbon from the atmosphere
and not at the scale envisaged in some climate scenarios". </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The
reasons for this conclusion are not clear. The report also notes "A
recent study (Marcucci et al., 2017) concluded that ....substantial
deployment of (direct air capture] (several gigatonnes of carbon
removals per year by 2100) would allow these targets to be met." The big
issue is simply cost. DAC will cost a lot more per ton than CCS used
on a power station or cement works but the costs are highly uncertain,
being quoted as $30-$1,000 per ton CO2!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are still many technical options. The sooner we put serious money into R&D and pilot plants the better!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-40119995509641168892016-08-16T23:55:00.001-07:002016-08-17T00:02:25.756-07:00Peatfires - 15% of Climate Change!You may hardly have heard of peatfires. You may vaguely remember a big one in Indonesia - in 1997 - which spread smoke halfway across Asia.<br />
<br />
So you might be surprised to <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v420/n6911/full/nature01131.html" target="_blank">learn </a>that that period of burning produced 13-40% of all the greenhouse gases emitted that year.<br />
<br />
And that's not all. According to Guillermo Rein, a Reader in Mechanical Engineering at Imperial College, "<span class="inplacedisplayid1siteid0"><a href="http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/naturalsciences/climatechange/eventssummary/event_2-6-2016-17-36-30" target="_blank">Smouldering megafires are the largest and longest-burning fires on Earth. They ... are responsible for 15% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions. This is the same amount attributed to the whole of the European Union, and yet it is not accounted for in carbon budgets</a>."</span><br />
<br />
<span class="inplacedisplayid1siteid0">And they form part of a positive feedback loop. Their greenhouse gas emissions drive up temperatures and that makes more fires more likely.</span><br />
<br />
Another thing to worry about.<br />
<span class="inplacedisplayid1siteid0"></span>David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-7541391710423164002016-07-29T09:26:00.002-07:002016-07-29T09:26:59.656-07:00Wasting the Water of LifeI want to recommend the work of Prof. Arjen Hoekstra, University of Twente.<br />
<br />
Hoekstra invented the Water Footprint, similar to the carbon footprint, and has published vast amounts of data. He also has emphatic <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23030700-800-we-can-avoid-a-water-crisis-but-the-fix-will-be-hard-to-swallow/" target="_blank">views</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">In Europe, the average consumer’s domestic use is typically only 1 to 2
per cent of their total water footprint: the vast majority relates to
the products you consume ... about 90 per cent of our global water footprint relates to food. <span style="background-color: yellow;">About
one-third relates to the production of feed for the animals we consume.</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">In California, for instance, the state’s biggest water use is for feed
crops. Meanwhile, you have this drought going on, and all of the time
the focus is on how terrible it is to have a drought. But<span style="background-color: yellow;"> the real focus
should be on how stupid it is to have such a big water demand in a
region where droughts are fully expected</span>. </span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">You can use less and less water per unit of production, but <span style="background-color: yellow;">if your
population is growing and your consumption booming, then that is simply
not sufficient</span>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">Because it imports so many goods, <a href="http://waterfootprint.org/en/resources/interactive-tools/national-water-footprint-explorer/">three-quarters of the UK’s water consumption is actually outside of its borders</a>. And about half of that usage is not sustainable. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;">We in northern Europe should realise that we are actually quite well off
with water, and ask why we import water-intensive goods from
water-scarce areas.<span style="background-color: yellow;"> It doesn’t make sense that we produce so little of
our own food.</span></span></blockquote>
All round the world we are mining water rather than recycling it. Ground water WILL run out and if we aren't ready we will all be in bad trouble.<br />
<br />
<br />
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-6162099187461537252016-06-19T08:53:00.003-07:002016-06-19T08:53:46.599-07:00RIP Bramble Cay melomysThe Bramble Cay melomys has the distinction of being the first mammal to be driven to extinction by climate change.<br />
<br />
The Bramble Cay melomys is, well was, a small rodent found on a single coral island in the Great Barrier Reef off Australia. When first recorded by Europeans there were many animals. Even in 1978 there were 'several hundred' but the melomys has not been seen since 2009 and is believed extinct.<br />
<br />
According to a <a href="https://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/wildlife/threatened-species/documents/bramble-cay-melomys-survey-report.pdf" target="_blank">report </a>by University of Queensland scientists the extinction <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/14/first-case-emerges-of-mammal-species-wiped-out-by-human-induced-climate-change" target="_blank">was due to habitat loss</a> caused by a combination of "severe meteorological events [and] anthropogenic climate change-driven
sea-level rise". Sea levels rose particularly fast in this area and the area of vegetation shrank from 2.2 ha in 2004 to 0.065 ha in 2014. <br />
<br />
The authors commented that “Significantly, this probably represents the first recorded mammalian
extinction due to anthropogenic climate change”.<br />
<br />
RIP <br />
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-73393664766148034102016-06-19T08:33:00.003-07:002016-06-19T08:33:49.463-07:00Did Kyoto work?Not really.<br />
<br />
That seems to be the conclusion of a new study Compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in<br />the first commitment period. Climate Policy, <a href="http://doi.org/bjz4">doi.org/bjz4</a>.<br />
<br />
No time for more.David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-79619423529341345972015-10-19T12:07:00.001-07:002015-10-22T01:28:40.639-07:00Climate schizophrenia <h3 class="post-title entry-title" itemprop="name">
</h3>
<div class="post-header">
The USA is a mighty strange place. It produces some of the world's best
scientists and most effective technology entrepreneurs. It also produces
a political culture dominated by money and fiercely hostile to anything
that challenges the power of the ruling elite.</div>
<br />
Only in the USA do we see so many powerful politicians in simple denial
of the facts that world temperatures are rising and will continue to
rise unless we active decisively. It's not because the USA is magically
exempt from the consequences of climate change. Quite the contrary:<br />
<br />
<b>Overheating:</b> A <a href="http://doi.org/4q4" target="_blank">study </a>by US scientists showed that US residents' exposure to temperatures over 35 degrees will increase 4 to 6 fold within 30 years. The increase is due to both climate change and population growth.<br />
<br />
<b>Sea-level rise: </b>A recent <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/10/07/1511186112.abstract" target="_blank">study </a>by
Princeton scientists has confirmed predictions that sea-level will rise
1 metre by 2100 and continue to rise thereafter. The land on which 30
million Americans live will ultimately be lost to the sea. Threatened
cities include Boston, New York, Miami, New Orleans Long Beach and even
Sacramento.<br />
<br />
But all that's decades, even centuries, in the future. Is the problem a
kind of short-sightedness? Well not really. Here's what's under their
noses.<br />
<br />
<b>Drought.</b> California is in the fourth year of a severe
drought, the worst in its history. This has produced forest fires that
have killed six people and destroyed 1,000 homes (New Scientist,
26/9/15, p5). The effect of climate change is easy to understand here.
Apart from just drying out the vegetation it makes precipitation fall as
rain, which runs off, not snow, which would replenish the underground
aquifers.<br />
<br />
Or is the USA still so obsessed with the Middle East that nothing else registers? Again no.<br />
<br />
<b>War. </b>Syria's civil war began with protests in cities like Homs and Hama in 2011. Conditions in these cities had been exacerbated by <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241" target="_blank">Syrians seeking refuge</a>
from the 2007-11 drought, the most severe on record. And the severity
of that drought was due to - have you guessed? - climate change.
Actually Syria's rainfall has been declining for about fifty years
whilst its population has risen four or five fold in that same period.<br />
<br />
Of course, it's never <i>just </i>climate change. Population growth,
rising consumer demand, religious extremism, government policies - or
the lack of them - and just bad luck are all part of the causal chain.<br />
<br />
It's just that so many US leaders refuse to see the obvious for fear
that they'd be obliged to support policies of restraint that would
threaten their comfort and the profits of their corporate sponsors.<br />
<br />
But you knew that, didn't you?
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-73301468577450840572015-08-26T01:16:00.002-07:002015-08-26T01:16:26.214-07:00How Climate Change threatens the world's natural heritageNot just Palmyra. <br />
<br />
In July New Scientist <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730294-100-climate-change-hits-one-in-six-world-heritage-nature-sites/" target="_blank">reported </a>that 35 World Heritage sites are threatened by climate change. That's nearly one in six of the sites listed because of their natural value. They include shrinking glaciers in Argentinia's Los Glaciares National Park and the washing away of birds nests by higher sea levels in Germany's Wadden Sea.<br />
<br />
In most cases climate change isn't the only factor. In Los Glaciares alien species, like cows and dogs, and increased visitor numbers create problems. In the Galapagos its much the same whilst in Mexico's Butterfly Biosphere Reserve commercial logging is a factor. Of course, these factors threaten that large majority of sites and habitats that aren't special enough to have World Heritage status but which are still important for the preservation of biodiversity and recreation.<br />
<br />
Look behind the headlines and you see the same four causes:<br />
<ul>
<li>More people - who need homes and food.</li>
<li>More prosperity - especially in China - which increases the demand for meat, minerals, travel, etc.</li>
<li>More development - both to meet local needs and to provide exports to the developed countries.</li>
<li>Unnecessary use of fossil fuels - driving climate change.</li>
</ul>
Consumer capitalism has lifted billions out of poverty but it now threatens the natural world. David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-29301739175078443672015-08-26T00:47:00.001-07:002015-08-26T00:48:38.247-07:00Can renewables meet the need?A recent tweet celebrated the supposed fact that at peak, recently,
Germany derived 25% of its power from solar. The source given was data
published by the Fraunhofer ISE at <a data-cke-saved-href="https://www.energy-charts.de/power_de.htm" href="https://www.energy-charts.de/power_de.htm">https://www.energy-charts.de/power_de.htm</a>. But is the claim true?<br />
<br />
Actually
no. The highest proportion in recent weeks was reached during August
2nd when a combination of low demand, low winds and strong sun produced
about <b>56%</b> of Germany's electric power from solar pv. A
very good result - though obviously excluding fuels used for space
heating, travel, etc.<br />
<br />
But it's a <b>power </b>number - a
measurement over a short time - specifically the middle of the day.
There is no solar power at night and not much in the early morning and
evening. A bit of rough analysis for a more representative day, 27 July
in fact, shows that solar produced 22% of the power at peak but 10% of
the day's energy. Extra investment in solar PV could increase the peak
as much as you like - even to 100% - but that would still need over 50%
of the <b>energy </b>to come from somewhere else (possibly wind or a storage
system).<br />
<br />
And this is mid summer.<br />
<br />
A similar analysis for
January shows a solar PV power peak of c8% but providing only c2% of the
day's electricity. And the average over that week is much worse.<br />
<br />
Is
wind the answer? Sort of. Germany gets more energy from wind than from
solar PV and it's available at night and in winter. But it's even less
predictable than solar. At midnight on January 5th it provided just 3%
of the needed electrical power.<br />
<br />
Moreover periods of low wind can last for days - there was almost no wind for the whole seven days starting January 17th.<br />
<br />
There
are partial low-carbon solutions - nuclear, tidal, hydro, import of
power from very large new solar farms in north Africa and various kinds
of storage - but they all have their own problems.<br />
Any responsible plan for our energy future must show how it would cope with periods like 17 to 14 January - and at what cost.David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-35974187726344119502015-08-16T10:09:00.001-07:002015-08-16T10:09:12.307-07:00Halfway to catastrophe!Two weeks ago <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730324-200-earth-now-halfway-to-un-global-warming-limit/" target="_blank">New Scientist reported</a> the results of a kind of mini systematic review of global temperatures since 1850. In it Michael Le Page argues that the best baseline period - to give the temperature before global warming started - is 1850 to 1899. For convenience some temperature series use 1880-1899 as their baseline but this is misleading because temperatures in the 1880s were depressed by the eruption of Krakatoa.<br />
<br />
When the five available temperature series are adjusted to use 1850-1899 as baseline it's clear that four of the five will show more than one degree of warming before the Paris IPCC conference this Autumn.<br />
<br />
That's halfway to the the two degree level generally thought to imply a strong probability of catastrophic climate change.<br />
<br />
Le Page continues with the prediction that unless we take "drastic action" the Earth will reach that two degree point by around 2050.David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-31315697256323374032015-07-24T00:53:00.000-07:002015-07-24T00:53:06.247-07:00Natural heritage in danger<b><a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/?&&&type=natural" target="_blank">197 World Heritage Sites</a></b> were selected because of their natural character. Of these 35 are threatened by climate change - the nearest being the Waddensee in north Germany. <br />
<br />
Ironically the only natural character site to lose its world heritage status, the Arabian Oryx Sanctuary, did so because Oman decided to allow oil prospecting!David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-51595318061768854362015-07-23T03:35:00.000-07:002015-07-23T03:35:25.446-07:00Sea level rise - No anomalyClimate scientists had been concerned by an apparent slowing of sea-level rise over the last decade despite the increasing volume of run-off from glaciers. A recent paper in Nature Climate Change (<a href="doi:%2010.1038/nclimate2635" target="_blank">DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2635</a>) resolves the anomaly.<br />
<br />
The authors showed that the rate of sea-level rise for 1993 to 2004 had been overestimated by about 20% due to inadequate calibration of the satellite-mounted altimeters. The new value, 2.6 to 2.9 mm/year, implies an <b>acceleration </b>in the rate of sea-level rise since 2004.<br />
<br />David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-45816741696424760242014-11-07T07:42:00.000-08:002014-11-07T07:42:19.629-08:00Repeating the fate of Carthage?Did you know that the Romans sowed the fields of Carthage with salt after defeating it in the second Punic War?<br />
<br />
If so, you know a myth! Apparently<a href="http://www.romanarmytalk.com/17-roman-military-history-a-archaeology/222936-scipio-sowing-carthage-with-salt.html" target="_blank"> this was invented</a> quite recently! <br />
<br />
Unfortunately, our salting of fields is all too real. An <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/11375/15697" target="_blank">international research team</a> points out that poor irrigation practice often leads to salt deposition causing production losses. They cite research showing that in India salt-affected fields produce 40 to 60% less than those not affected. The team estimated the annual costs due to lost crop yields and additional costs at $27 billion per year.<br />
<br />
Salt damage can be reversed - but it's not cheap.David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-44764370885772124502014-10-27T05:10:00.002-07:002014-10-27T05:10:56.054-07:00Species Loss: It's later than you think<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">How many species are going extinct? It's an impossible question, not least because we don't know how many species there are. We do, of course, know pretty accurately the numbers of species of birds, mammals and reptiles. The big uncertainties apply to insects, beetles and plants. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The low estimates are two million species and of which we are losing 0.01% per year. That implies a loss of 200 species pa. Other estimates are as much as ten times greater implying a loss rate of 20,000 species per year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">But the real frightener is that even these numbers may be a serious underestimate.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The main driver of species extinction is widely believed to be habitat loss but it has proved difficult to prove this quantitatively. However, work by Stefan Dullinger and Franz Essl (of the University of Vienna) and co-workers appears to have resolved this puzzle. In research published in 2013 <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/110/18/7342.full" target="_blank">(</a><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/110/18/7342.full" target="_blank">PNAS, April 30, 2013. vol. 110, no. 18</a>) they showed that species loss in many species does not occur <b>when </b>the habitat is destroyed or degraded but decades <b>later</b>.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">An analysis of threatened species from seven taxonomic groups and 22 European countries showed that the number of such species was best explained by what had happened in 1900. The most useful variable was the intensity of land use - or how much of the production of the land we humans take for ourselves. This accounted for 35% of threatened species - twice as many as were predicted by land use data for the year 2000.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It's not hard to see why. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Intensification of land use such as deforestation or even hedgerow removal does not usually kill every member of a species but it does reduce their numbers and creates smaller, more or less isolated, populations. These populations are vulnerable to accidents, in-breeding, human disturbance and further habitat loss. Over a period of decades rare events become rather likely causing the small populations to become extinct. Even where physically possible isolation prevents recolonisation of the area and the species moves towards extinction.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">What this means, practically, is that we have seriously under-estimated the impact of the human activity on the natural world because much of it has not yet happened. And, insofar as our predictions of future impacts are based on our experience those impacts are also </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">under-estimated</span>. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">A separate study by Oliver Wearn and co-workers at Imperial College (Science, 337, p 228) </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">estimates
that deforestation to date will ultimately eliminate 5% of species of
Amazonian birds, mammals and amphibians. However, if deforestation
continues at its present rate Amazonian species loss will reach 40% by
2050 and may ultimately reach 65%.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">And this, please note, is before we assess the impacts of climate change!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Pessimists are surely right to consider ours the time of the Sixth Great (species) Extinction - comparable to the asteroid strike that killed the dinosaurs. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The difference is that the asteriod did not know what it was doing. We do.</span>David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-64246109566605199042014-10-13T07:36:00.001-07:002014-10-13T07:36:20.442-07:00Wind farms perform better than we feared<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";"></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";"></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Some commentators have claimed
that the performance of wind farms will decline catastrophically with age. For
instance, a report by Prof Gordon Hughes for the Renewable Energy Foundation
claimed that the “</span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: MinionPro-Regular;">normalised load factor for UK onshore
wind farms declines from a peak of about 24% at age 1 to 15% at age 10 and 11%
at age 15”. That implies an annual worsening of about 5% and would presumably
be due to mechanical wear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span>
<br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: MinionPro-Regular;">It
would greatly reduce the long-term value of wind farms both economically and as
sources of low-carbon electricity.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: MinionPro-Regular;">Fortunately
a more recent study, Staffel and Green, 20<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>13,
suggests that it isn’t true. This is an extremely detailed study which draws on
very large quantities of data about both weather and wind farms. The authors
show that, though wind farm performance varies considerably:</span></div>
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: MinionPro-Regular;">The initial load factor is 28.5% not
25%.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: MinionPro-Regular;">The annual performance loss is about
1.6% not 5%.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: MinionPro-Regular;">This
is good news for investors in wind farms and for the climate.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">References</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Hughes,
Gordon, 2011:<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b><i>The Performance of
Wind Farms in the United Kingdom and Denmark</i>. 2012, London: Renewable
Energy Foundation. URL: <a href="http://tinyurl.com/cn5qnqg">http://tinyurl.com/cn5qnqg</a>.
</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Staffell,
Iain, and Green, Richard, 2013: How does wind farm performance decline with
age? Renewable Energy. Volume 66, June 2014, Pages 775–786.<span class="showinfo"> URL: </span><span class="scdddoi">DOI:
10.1016/j.renene.2013.10.041.</span></span></div>
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-32358323948731107682014-10-13T01:30:00.001-07:002014-10-22T07:27:08.720-07:00Renewable Energy and Enfield<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";"><b><i>[This post was originally written for the newsletter of the Enfield Society - which will print part of it.]</i></b></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">In
planning applications and fuel bills, on Welsh hillsides and in the North Sea,
we keep hearing about renewable energy. But why? What’s the fuss about?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Let’s
start at the beginning. Our economy is based on fossil fuels. Gas and oil heat
our houses. Petrol and diesel fuel our cars. Coal and gas generate most of our
electricity. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">It has
to stop. The overwhelming majority of competent scientists agree that burning
fossil fuels has already increased global temperatures, raised sea levels, melted
much of the Arctic ice and made extreme weather events more likely. If this
continues island and coastal communities will lose their homes, arid regions
will dry out and global food production will fall.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">And we
have to move fast. To avoid catastrophic climate change we need to reduce
global greenhouse gas emissions by 3% pa, starting now. The later we leave it
the faster we’ll have to cut emissions. Also, since the UK’s prosperity is
derived from our coal-fueled industrial revolution which has so polluted the
atmosphere it’s only fair that we should cut our emissions sooner and faster
than countries, like India and China, that are still industrialising.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Our
first thought should obviously be to use less energy (and thus save money!). We
can do this by improving building insulation, buying more efficient equipment,
replacing things less frequently and driving and flying less. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">There a LOT of scope for this. Homes built to the highest standards (passivhaus) need 90% less heating energy than average homes. Unfortunately Enfield Council has refused to mandate this level of performance despite repeated representations from Enfield Green Party. </span><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">There's also scope to provide the heating that is needed, especially in existing buildings, by using ground and air-source heat pumps rather than conventional boilers. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">In addition the most energy efficient cars, computers and domestic appliance are much more efficient than average ones. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">That
will not be enough. We must also stop burning fossil fuels and move to
low-carbon energy sources. Our existing nuclear power plants must play their
part but new nuclear plants simply cannot be built fast enough or cheaply
enough or run reliably enough to meet the need even if the waste disposal
problem was solved – which it isn’t. Renewables will have to carry most of the
load.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Fortunately
there are lots of renewable energy sources: hydropower, sunlight, wind, waves,
tides, hot underground rocks, spare heat from furnaces and sustainably produced
fuels. Each of these has its pros and cons. How can Enfield play its part in
the renewables revolution? How, in short, can we cut our greenhouse gas
emissions and create the green jobs our people need?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">We can
exclude waves and tides (no sea) and hot rocks (wrong geology). Large
hydroelectric schemes are also out though I<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">
</i>believe that the Council plans<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i>a
small turbine in the River Lee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
Council also plans a heat network to distribute spare heat from the Edmonton
incinerator.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s low-carbon energy
provided that it’s our last resort for dealing with waste. Reuse and recycling
are clearly better options where available. It may also be possible to add
other sources of spare heat to the heat network or to support another heat
network.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Could
we use sustainably produced fuels in a heat network or even in cars? Perhaps.
In the UK today these fuels are mainly biodiesel from vegetable oil and some
sustainably produced wood. In practice the biodiesel isn’t always low carbon
due to the deforestation that precedes palm oil production. Further, the UK
already has a number of power stations that burn woodchips and other biofuels
with others planned but their appetite for fuel greatly exceeds the supply of
sustainably-produced fuel – even allowing for imports. The greenwash is
particularly thick in this sector!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">With
appropriate regulation this may become an important sector as there are several
novel fuels under development. However, these are all possibilities for the
future not fuels we can use now. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">So we
come to the big ones: sun and wind. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Wind
is actually a bit marginal in urban areas. Big turbines are impractical, small
turbines are inefficient and may damage any wall or roof they’re attached to.
Larger turbines might be installed in the north of the borough – though the
many restrictions would make it hard, perhaps impossible, to find suitable
sites.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To me wind turbines are elegant
and stately. I like them. Some people object to them on aesthetic grounds but
there’s no accounting for taste is there?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Finally
sunlight. We could all use sunlight to heat our water and generate electricity.
Government subsidies (Feed-in Tariff and Renewable Heat Obligations to be
technical) make investment profitable for the homeowner whilst contributing
power to the grid. Unfortunately Enfield lags behind on solar electricity –
only one home in 362 has solar panels – compared to 1 in 8 in Waltham Forest. Enfield
has only 1.5MW of installed solar capacity. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Solar
PV is not limited to private homes. The Council has installed panels on the
Civic Centre and on schools. Many offices and factories could also benefit from
solar panels. As a Green I’d like to see the Council make this mandatory for
new and existing buildings. But national legislation make this impossible and
the need to persuade hundreds of employers and to co-ordinate thousands of
installations in a voluntary programme is daunting. And speed is vital.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">That’s
why I support the proposed solar array for Sloeman’s Farm. Once approved it would
provide 15MW within just a few months. That’s <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ten times</b> Enfield’s current solar capacity and it would increase
London’s solar capacity by 30%. No other current scheme can do so much so fast.
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype","serif";">Renewable
energy is not a fad. To reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, fast, is an
obligation we owe to future generations, to people in low-lying lands and to
all the species threatened by climate change. Inaction is not an option I can
live with.</span></div>
David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-49346003348817136712014-07-24T08:46:00.004-07:002014-07-29T23:09:28.710-07:00Disrupting the world of growth<span style="font-size: small;">Here's a book I recommend very strongly. It's</span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"> <b>The Great Disruption</b> by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Gilding">Paul Gilding</a><br /> Bloomsbury, 2011</span><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;">Gilding is an interesting fellow. Former trade union organiser, former military officer, former head of Greenpeace Australia and now an international business consultant. </span><br />
<br />
The book contains a lot of familiar stuff: threat of climate change, history of international negotiations and so on. But the really interesting part is unfamiliar. I think these are his most original points:<br />
<ol>
<li>The opportunity to avoid a planetary crisis has passed. There will be a crisis and it will involve the whole natural-social-economic system.</li>
<li>We can and will address it. We are "slow but not stupid".</li>
<li>The experience of mobilising for WW2 and addressing the banking crisis shows that we <b>can</b> make big changes fast once we see the need.</li>
<li>We have already entered the crisis period. This can be seen in food price instability, rising energy prices, rising mineral prices, recession and the banking crisis. And, I would add, our inadequate response to these problems.</li>
<li>Once our political leaders recognise the imperative need to act they will create crisis plans which will use existing attitudes and institutions to address the most urgent problem - which is probably climate change.</li>
<li>Only as we work through the crisis will people recognise that sustainability is incompatible with economic growth. </li>
<li>A new and better world will emerge from the crisis.</li>
</ol>
More specifically he thinks our response will play out over three phases:<br />
<ul>
<li>Years 1-5, Climate War. Crash programme to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50%. Uses existing institutions under government direction and proven technologies.</li>
<li>Years 5-20, Climate neutrality. Reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions to zero. Some new institutions and technologies.</li>
<li>Years 20-100, Climate recovery. Negative greenhouse gas emissions and the building of a new society.</li>
</ul>
Despite the negative start this is fundamentally an optimistic picture and there are many things that could go wrong. For instance we could react "too little, too late". Good plans could be undermined by selfish and shortsighted individuals, groups and nations as well as honest error. And, in planning something so novel and dramatic, there will be mistakes in the planning too.<br />
<br />
So this transition will need strong leadership, effective systems of governance and a political environment that will at least tolerate the necessary changes and sacrifices. Gilding says almost nothing about the politics and government institutions that will be needed so I'll flesh that out a bit for the Climate War phase.<br />
<br />
I believe that the later stages will present different political challenges; no less serious but there will be more time to address them. <br />
<br />
<b>Leadership</b><br />
Since this has to be a global response we'll need global leaders who are completely committed to the cause and who control the necessary institutions. These leaders will probably be people with substantial political experience that is, experience of both winning elections and governing states. It's therefore unlikely that they will be drawn from the environmental movement or the existing Green parties except in countries with proportional representation. They will have spent their years studying power, not science or nature, and will be ignorant of ecological thinking.<br />
<br />
They will, however, probably recruit people from the environmental movement and the Green parties as advisers.<br />
<br />
<b>National institutions</b><br />
The required programme will include closure of some major plants, eg drilling rigs and oil refineries, and a rapid expansion in industries such as solar and wind power. Industries such as travel will have to shrink. Yet others, eg agriculture, will be transformed. We cannot expect the industries affected to organise their own decline or even transformation at the required pace so there will have to be national and international planning agencies.<br />
<br />
It may be that most companies and countries will follow these plans but not all will do so. The selfish and short-sighted individuals and groups whose existence I noted above will have to be compelled to comply. Companies operating in one country are subject to national law and can, where the state itself works, be brought into line through the familiar processes of regulation and inspection - though the level of intervention will be greatly increased.<br />
<br />
Or can they?<br />
<br />
There are many countries in which laws and taxes are widely evaded by concealment and corruption. These countries will not change their natures just because we face a global crisis. So the more law-abiding countries will have to accept substantial non-compliance. And the less law-abiding countries will have to accept unprecedented levels of international monitoring and direction.<br />
<br />
These facts will create backlashes in both kinds of countries. <br />
<br />
<b>International institutions</b><br />
Since this is a global crisis we will need international institutions to ensure that the national actions add up to an adequate global response. And, since many of the largest and most-polluting firms are multinationals, there will have to be international enforcement mechanisms. The WTO provides some useful precedents here with the vitally important difference that participation will not be voluntary.<br />
<br />
None of this can happen unless the leaders of the major powers, that is, the USA, China and the EU, support it but just as nations include selfish and short-sighted individuals and groups so the world will include selfish and short-sighted nations. Here, again, enforcement mechanisms will be needed.<br />
<br />
It's likely that, with a strong push from the major powers, a good deal can be achieved by courts and negotiation. Gilding seems to believe that this will be enough. I'd like to agree, but I don't.<br />
<br />
The whole history of international attempts to address climate change persuade me that some nations will be unwilling to accept international direction and that military intervention will be necessary. This may be by UN forces or by the forces of the major powers.<br />
<br />
<b>Public opinion</b><br />
In the richer countries the Climate War programme will imply restrictions on holidays, travel, fuel, heating, food and employment. Many people will have to change the ways in which they work. This will provoke a substantial backlash both from who can see no further than their own problems and those who see further but hope, by money or privilege, to escape the worst consequences of climate change. Both groups are already visible. Neither will vanish. <br />
<br />
In any country with a functioning democracy, indeed, in any country in which people are free to talk and meet, this backlash has the potential to derail the Climate War programme. A variety of responses are available to governments from abandoning the programme through persuasion to suspending civil liberties for the duration.<br />
<br />
Since Gilding cites the WW2 experience repeatedly it's worth noting that each of allied leaders, Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin, had domestic powers that constituted, or bordered on, dictatorship and control of large military and security forces. Each of them ran a command economy in which the government defined requirements and allocated work, and workers, to the places where it was to be done. <br />
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In short, I fear that success in addressing climate change may require some suspension of liberties and of democracy. <br />
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<b>Conclusions</b><br />
These are uncomfortable conclusions for me. I am not a closet authoritarian and I would much rather believe in a solution based on persuasion and democratic politics. But I have to agree with Gilding that the time for that option has passed. That it has passed is the fault of the politicians and commentators who could have provided timely leadership and didn't.<br />
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Now someone will have to clear up the mess.David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1136898599246394853.post-78183646640381314352014-06-24T10:07:00.000-07:002014-06-24T10:07:07.801-07:00Bring out your inner tortoise!Speed is the defining characteristic of our age. Above all we go faster than our ancestors - until the steam train no-one had ever gone faster than a galloping horse. (Unless they fell off a high cliff I suppose.) And we praise speed in sport, in business and in travel. It's no surprise then that George Osbourne's latest wheeze for reviving the economy is HS3, a high-SPEED rail line across the north of England.<br />
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Yet 'speed kills', speed is dangerous. Fast cars cause accidents. Fast decisions overlook inconvenient facts. And friction means that high speeds waste more energy than low speeds.<br />
<br />The Green movement knows this and has lobbied for lower speeds on roads and against high-speed rail on the grounds of energy and safety. But there's more to it than that. There are activities that are better if they're slower. Eating, drinking and lovemaking for just three. In fact most social activities are better if they're not rushed. <br />
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And this is one key to creating a better society. When we ask for speed limits we're making the street more accessible to those, children and the elderly, who aren't fast. We're also making the streets a more natural place for social contact. When we oppose high-speed rail we're also asking people and planners to focus on their local economies and suburbs.<br />
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And in all we're striving for a society that cares more for the relationships between its people than for the speed of its machines. A society in which people sustain each other and in which our demands are such that the Earth can sustain us; and our children.<br />
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For more on this see Carl Honore's <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/carl_honore_praises_slowness?utm_medium=on.ted.com-twitter&awesm=on.ted.com_f0EKY&utm_content=awesm-publisher&utm_source=t.co&utm_campaign=#t-848202">TED talk</a>.<br />
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<br />David Flinthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11063189611159076891noreply@blogger.com0