To end
this global emergency every country must reduce its carbon emissions – which
come mainly from burning fossil fuels. As a matter of simple justice that obligation
must fall most heavily on the countries that have made the greatest historical
contribution to climate change and which are still most profligate in their use
of them. That means us. Specifically it means local and national government.
How does Luton Council propose to
meet this obligation? It proposes to make matters worse. The Luton Airport Expansion Project 'SIFT 2' report
(p60) says:
“… by
far the most significant GHG emissions impact will be from aircraft cruise
emissions i.e. emissions from aircraft over 3,000ft. As a result every option
is judged to have a Large
Adverse impact“
In 2018
16.5 million passengers used Luton Airport. Carbon emissions were estimated as
2.2MtonsCO2e, that’s about half of one percent of all UK domestic emissions. To
allow for the increased radiative forcing due to high-altitude emissions we
should double that number. So one percent – just from one airport.
LLAL now
proposes to increase the capacity of the airport to at least 36 mppa (“in the
region of 240,000 aircraft movements per year”). That’s a 118% increase. The
carbon emissions are then expected to be 3.9 MtonsCO2e – again we need to
double that. If that occurs in 2039 and if the UK meets its climate change
obligations that will comprise c5% of UK domestic emissions – still from just
one airport.
It’s
morally outrageous.
It’s also economic nonsense. Luton
Council and Airport are assuming that flying will continue to grow for many years
into the future. But this ignores:
- The increasing effects of climate change.
- The growing realisation, by politicians and the public, that the climate emergency is a major threat. When Nigel Farrage AND Jeremy Clarkson both express climate concern in a single week we can see that something has changed
- More specifically the acknowledgement by the Committee on Climate Change that aviation growth has to be restrained.
A simple extrapolation suggests that our government will, however reluctantly, take steps to restrain that growth. It may not be next year or even by 2024 but it will come. And where will the Airport's business case be then?
