Has China passed peak emissions?

China’s greenhouse gas emissions show something important. The rolling 12-mointh totals for March 2024 were higher than for any subsequent month. By October 2025 emissions had fallen 1.2%. According Carbon Brief, 11/11/2025, to this is due to a combination of factors:

·         Reduction of oil use in the transport sector due to the increase in electric vehicles. Emissions fell 5% in one year.

·         Installation of lots more wind and solar capacity 240 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 61GW of wind in the first nine months of 2025 alone.

·         Big increases in the generation of electricity from wind and solar kept total power sector emissions flat despite an increase in electricity demand. Here, at least, decoupling is real.

·         Offsetting this, emissions from the production of plastics and chemicals rose.

It’s too soon to say that China’s emissions peaked in March 2024. The drop from then to November 2025 was small beer by China’s standards. The economy might do something unexpected or a change in, say, regulation of the power sector might reverse recent gains.

But it is a big deal that we must consider whether the emissions of the world’s fastest growing economy has passed peak emissions.

What’s clear is that the accelerating growth in renewable generation and electric traction on the roads will outrun demand growth soon, even if not this year. Four conclusions:

·         Growth in China’s green sectors, and thus in global numbers, will continue to accelerate.

·         Decoupling of emissions from the economy is real, at least in China.

·         By modelling success, reducing prices and aggressive selling China will drive the green transition in many other countries.

·         This will advance China’s claim to be a more useful and consistent trade partner and technology supplier than the USA. Trump’s erratic and absurd behaviour contributes strongly to this as well.